Attrition

[Old smart]

Am I reading the numbers right?

Penske said in the video that 8%-9% have requested refunds. He also said that there was an 84% response to the confirmation invitations (leaving 16% without immediate response). Of the late responders, he said the 60% of those ultimately did so (40% didn't). So, 16% x 40% = 6% (6% of those in the game long enough to confirm didn't).

But 8%-9% had already gone AWOL. To me it looks like an 14%-15% attrition rate even before the signning-on-the-line part.

[amoore007]

Fish,

That is 81% onboard. Above some of the predictions that I have read on this board.

[SmartBob]

And every time someone bails it puts each of us one car closer, man!

[MicroNut]

In an article from 11-19 on The Car Connection, Dave Schembri is quoted as saying that so far, about 90 percent have followed through, going online to use smart's digital order form. Only about seven percent have canceled out and asked for their money back.

This appears to be an updated version of the information given out by Penske at the launch press conference, but of course no way of knowing how the journalist interpreted what Schembri actually said.

Link: http://www.thecarconnection.com/Auto...73.A13658.html

[Carnut]

Keep in mind that some of the reservers were opportunists using family and friends to reserve a smart thinking that they would flip it. I'm sure that cancellation percentages will increase. I would guess at 12% - 15% when the smoke clears.

[xrisnothing]

Don't forget that the people who are confirming their orders now are the earliest adopters and are more enthusiastic about the car and are more willing to wait for it. I hope and suspect that as the confirmation e-mails roll out that more and more people back out.

[gamernotwatcher]

I agree and with the help of you all, my enthusiasm has only increased.

[smorris]

But at confirmation, you still are not adding any money to the pot, nor are you further committing to buying the car (are you?) So what will prevent those same early adopters from just going to the next step until there's an orphan car at their appointed dealership?

[spdickey]

Originally Posted by smorris

But at confirmation, you still are not adding any money to the pot, nor are you further committing to buying the car (are you?) So what will prevent those same early adopters from just going to the next step until there's an orphan car at their appointed dealership?

Somewhere along the line they talked about signing at the dealer and paying a "deposit." I'm not sure how far in advance they want that. Should be a short wait for the first in line (none of us have done that yet, and we expect first deliveries in January) and they may bring in others early on to get some $$$ commitments.

They did talk about reservations cancellations at the D.C. breakfast and that they would be sold by the dealers. I'm sure all this talk is designed to increase awareness and sales. What else do car salesman do? Anything to increase traffic on the showroom floor!

[xrisnothing]

Hopefully the ones that go unclaimed will be offered to people further down the list rather than walk-ins or a dealer's own list, even if the price gets inflated by the dealer. So, one abandoned smart would mean two people off of the wait list. I can dream, can't I?