Last set of reservation holders to get their Smarts in 2008

[Robbie51]

I know there are a lot of people "dropping out", but I wonder what set of reservation holders will be the ones to receive the last shipment of Smarts in 08? There seem to be a lot of people who reserved VERY late in the year, even up to this point, who seem to believe they will be receiving a car by Nov. 08 and I am wondering where they get this thinking from. I for one reserved on July 12 and feel I am being realistic in thinking I will receive a car in fall or even winter of 08 if I am so lucky. Does anyone notice this trend and does anyone think the same as I do???? Any thoughts would help.

[Smartdavis]

I was wondering the same thing. Since the SmartUSA website has now removed the reference to receiving a 2008 when you reserve, it seems that the numbers that are reserving now (high 1400's and beyond) are looking at 2009's unless they are willing to take an orphan. It's fun to speculate.

[angel]

And all of it is speculation too. With some res holders making their res as late as SEPT already getting configuration emails. And some 1235's still waiting to configure. More than the #'s it comes down to geographical location. No doubt if it's Dallas TX it's going to be a year long wait. If it's Kentucky then they might still get it before the end of the year. At least if things continue the way it is now. I have decided it's a good thing I'm not holding my breath. ;)

[PassionforPassionCT]

I think once you configure, its gravy. I have asked at different smart centers, and they say that 3 months is the time from configuration to delivery, + or - a couple of weeks or so. But a wrench has been thrown into the deal now with the tranny problems. I think if you reserved before dec 07, you will have your car before fall.

[CruisingAZ]

I know they have posted three months from configure date, but the e-mail I received yesterday stated "We MAY be able to get you your smart in the last half of 2008", if that is the case it sounds like 6 to 8 months from configure is a better window.

My second reservation is #1500, I fully expect that to be a 2009.

[Robbie51]

Originally Posted by PassionforPassionCT

I think if you reserved before dec 07, you will have your car before fall.

Thanks for your response on this, but I just don't see how this is possible. Even with all the drop outs I'm sure the reservations at that point were way up there and Smart is planning to release only 16k-20k cars the 1st year? Where is this thought coming from??????

[SmartBob]

There are a lot of posts regarding this. The conclusion still as far as I can see is that once you confirm you can hope for 3-4 months for delivery. As was also stated many times....location plays a big part in all of this. I'm #1321. I reservied Aug 15th and was confirmed Feb 1st. Our statistics show that I should get my car by May or so. I'm not in a rush or being overly optimistic....it's just based on the facts from monitoring this issue here in the SCOA forum.

[tipo158]

Originally Posted by SmartBob

There are a lot of posts regarding this. The conclusion still as far as I can see is that once you confirm you can hope for 3-4 months for delivery ... it's just based on the facts from monitoring this issue here in the SCOA forum.

Because if you hear something repeated often enough, it must be true.

No matter how many people say 3-4 months from confirm to delivery, smart has been delivering cars for only about a month, so there is not really enough delivery information to determine if this is really true or will continue to be true. Maybe it will end up being true, but it is gonna take some time before that we can figure it out.

Based on estimates, my reservation is around number 16000. (There used to be a list of reservation count estimates with their date posted on one of these forums.) I confirmed this weekend (fairly late for my reservation number). 3-4 months from confirm to delivery means that I will be getting my car by the end of June. Does this make sense? Only if the dropout rate is really high or smart is building a lot more cars than they have said (or some mix).

[Fredvon4]

Explored and hashed out is several other threads under various topics.

WE, at SCOA know a few things to make good educated guesses from. As time goes by we get clearer and clearer info (data)

16,000 units was the target initial contract PAG had with MB

Dr Z and R Penske have both publicly stated that number will raise..

Based on factory production possibilities we think 24,000 to 26,000 is about highest possible. Dr Z has publicly stated he wants to fulfill as many reservations as possible. German business news has the estimate at 20,000 units for North America. Some of think that figure too low. Penske has said 22 or 24 thousand I think, but he is vague on this.

Here at SCOA, we effectively tracked the $99 reservation program from public speeches by R Penske, D Shembri and some Detroit news sources. The last official word was "Over 30,000 reservations" last October. We were able to guess what the daily or weekly numbers "should be" from the 5 to 7 data points in March, May, Jun, Aug public press conferences. Based on this fairly consistent data, the Early Dec 07 $99 paid reservations should have been near 45,000.

Starting last Aug we started to see invites to configure (step #2 in a 4 step process)

From that point until now, we have been fairly accurate on how things will go and there are only two areas where we are sort of wrong... Licensing of the dealers in several states skewed the info, and timing. Zip code distribution skewed our ideas on the logistics

We have since learned that in the real large markets (high % or reservations) The timing or wait times will be in order of when reserved /configured. So we now see that a Mid March reservation 1173~1184 might not get their car are soon as a 1200 or higher in another market with lower density percentages.

This dynamic is due to load balancing across all 70 dealers this first year. The factory can only deliver a finite quantity of cars each shipping week. We figure the max production to USA at around 2000 units. But most likely will be 1500 or less first few months. That is only 21 cars per month per dealer. And this is close to what we are seeing reported. Some getting 13 some getting 35 across the entire 70 dealers. Some dealers with hundreds of 1173s through 1184s are not getting large enough flow to satisfy all the early reservation holders before some dealer who's first reservation holder was already in the 1190s.

Bottom line is, how long you wait really depends a LOT now on what market you are in and NOT what date you reserved... relative to others across the states.

Their stated goal is 60~90 days from configuration to delivery. After this initial logistical nightmare is sorted out, I think by late May to Mid June, we will see a more deliberative process.

2008 vs 2009 car? This is totally dependent on three things
1- drop out rate
2- total 08 production to USA #
3- Model year cut over

There is just not enough data Right now to predict when, in 07, a reservation holder will be more likely to get a 09 model vs an 08 one.

I highly doubt any reservation after late Nov 07 is going to see an 08 car.

Attrition has to be over 30% using 45,000 as the base number of reservations; And Production has to be greater then 28,000 units for USA... 30% drop out against 45,000 reservations is still a 31,000 customer demand....

I am thinking the lack of communication and the meager warranty are designed to slow demand... But that is just the conspiracy theorist in me thinking out loud... grin

[Robbie51]

Thanks for the info Fredvon4. I know this process is a long one due to it being the very first stage of introducing the car to the US, I just wish it were planned out a little more smoothly so we all could have better info. I also agree that late 07 reservations will most likely not see a car this year. I just found it amazing how many reservation holders in the very last part of 07 and even 08 really believe they will see a car before the end of 08?
Bottom line, I'm hanging in there and know it will be worth the wait when I see it in my garage.