So you want to know your number in the queue?

[paul c]

Of course you do! And I'm here to tell you. Well, not exactly, but pretty close.
The methodology:
I've reviewed every mention of the number of reservists which included a date. I've thrown out all those clearly wrong (775,000 from someone in Texas, for example), placed more weight from those more knowledgeable (PAG, certain posters who have inside information), placed less weight on those who included other known false information, and put the data in a spread sheet. Then I graphed the result. I cannot for the life of me figure out how to display the graph, so I'll present the data in chart form:
The chart:
Date......# of reservations
Mar 15.........0
Apr 1......5000
Apr 15.....8300
May1.....11700
May 15...15000
Jun 1.....16250
Jun 15....17500
Jul 1......18750
Jul 15....20000
Aug 1.....22000
Aug 15...26000
Sep 1.....30000
Sep 15...31250
Oct 1.....32500
The qualifications:
The first one is that it's not exactly right. The second is that it doesn't take into account the drop-outs.
The use:
Find out where your date falls in the chart, extrapolate a little, and you have a number. Not the exact number, of course, but I'd guess within a thousand or so.

[Lewis]

Great job- assuming that the cars arrive at a steady rate (we can only assume that now-don't know the boat docking dates and their capacities) we can guess at what time of the year we'll see our car based on 24,000 deliveries!

[Old smart]

Interesting. By my own hambone method I came up with 18870 for my 25 JUN date. Reasonably close.

[Lewis]

This is a great service Paul- thank you!

[2micro4u]

If 20,000 - 25000 are only being sold in 2008 according to 2008. Then that mean Since I reserved OCTOBER 5th I will not recieve mine until 1st qtr of 2009.
Im very very sad. It does not feel cool being at the very very end of the line.

[2micro4u]

Even with the drop outs I highly down there were that many to effect October reserviees to get theirs by the end of 2008.

Well I guess there will be alot who will not get appoved for the loan if their credit is not up to par so hopefully that will help the time arrive sooner as well. Inaddition there may be people who cant wait 8-12 months......Ahhhhhhh WU SAAAAAA

[Old smart]

Originally Posted by 2micro4u

...Well I guess there will be alot who will not get appoved for the loan if their credit is not up to par...

This may turn out to be germane, not so much about attrition, but how the smart Centers may make some profit - dealer financing with applicants desperate to get a smart.

[E-SMART]

Copied from the smart canada forum from a member out of Vancouver, WA:

The last four digits is a code for your day of reservation. 1173= March 19th. 1174= March 20th. Therefore 1232=May 17th (My reservation date.)

1172 = 03/18/07 1207 = 04/22/07 1242 = 05/27/07 1277 = 07/01/07
1173 = 03/19/07 1208 = 04/23/07 1243 = 05/28/07 1278 = 07/02/07
1174 = 03/20/07 1209 = 04/24/07 1244 = 05/29/07 1279 = 07/03/07
1175 = 03/21/07 1210 = 04/25/07 1245 = 05/30/07 1280 = 07/04/07
1176 = 03/22/07 1211 = 04/26/07 1246 = 05/31/07 1281 = 07/05/07
1177 = 03/23/07 1212 = 04/27/07 1247 = 06/01/07 1282 = 07/06/07
1178 = 03/24/07 1213 = 04/28/07 1248 = 06/02/07 1283 = 07/07/07
1179 = 03/25/07 1214 = 04/29/07 1249 = 06/03/07 1284 = 07/08/07
1180 = 03/26/07 1215 = 04/30/07 1250 = 06/04/07 1285 = 07/09/07
1181 = 03/27/07 1216 = 05/01/07 1251 = 06/05/07 1286 = 07/10/07
1182 = 03/28/07 1217 = 05/02/07 1252 = 06/06/07 1287 = 07/11/07
1183 = 03/29/07 1218 = 05/03/07 1253 = 06/07/07 1288 = 07/12/07
1184 = 03/30/07 1219 = 05/04/07 1254 = 06/08/07 1289 = 07/13/07
1185 = 03/31/07 1220 = 05/05/07 1255 = 06/09/07 1290 = 07/14/07
1186 = 04/01/07 1221 = 05/06/07 1256 = 06/10/07 1291 = 07/15/07
1187 = 04/02/07 1222 = 05/07/07 1257 = 06/11/07 1292 = 07/16/07
1188 = 04/03/07 1223 = 05/08/07 1258 = 06/12/07 1293 = 07/17/07
1189 = 04/04/07 1224 = 05/09/07 1259 = 06/13/07 1294 = 07/18/07
1190 = 04/05/07 1225 = 05/10/07 1260 = 06/14/07 1295 = 07/19/07
1191 = 04/06/07 1226 = 05/11/07 1261 = 06/15/07 1296 = 07/20/07
1192 = 04/07/07 1227 = 05/12/07 1262 = 06/16/07 1297 = 07/21/07
1193 = 04/08/07 1228 = 05/13/07 1263 = 06/17/07 1298 = 07/22/07
1194 = 04/09/07 1229 = 05/14/07 1264 = 06/18/07 1299 = 07/23/07
1195 = 04/10/07 1230 = 05/15/07 1265 = 06/19/07 1300 = 07/24/07
1196 = 04/11/07 1231 = 05/16/07 1266 = 06/20/07 1301 = 07/25/07
1197 = 04/12/07 1232 = 05/17/07 1267 = 06/21/07 1302 = 07/26/07
1198 = 04/13/07 1233 = 05/18/07 1268 = 06/22/07 1303 = 07/27/07
1199 = 04/14/07 1234 = 05/19/07 1269 = 06/23/07 1304 = 07/28/07
1200 = 04/15/07 1235 = 05/20/07 1270 = 06/24/07 1305 = 07/29/07
1201 = 04/16/07 1236 = 05/21/07 1271 = 06/25/07 1306 = 07/30/07
1202 = 04/17/07 1237 = 05/22/07 1272 = 06/26/07 1307 = 07/31/07
1203 = 04/18/07 1238 = 05/23/07 1273 = 06/27/07 1308 = 08/01/07
1204 = 04/19/07 1239 = 05/24/07 1274 = 06/28/07 1309 = 08/02/07
1205 = 04/20/07 1240 = 05/25/07 1275 = 06/29/07 1310 = 08/03/07
1206 = 04/21/07 1241 = 05/26/07 1276 = 06/30/07 1311 = 08/04/07

True test would be again, to match the resv date with when smart sends you the confirmation which I'm sure based on all of the interest someone will do as well ...

Link to thread:

http://www.clubsmartcar.ca/forums/vi...11061&start=90

[gamernotwatcher]

So with the data above and a crystal ball, could you tell the distribution dates for this range?:
Mar 15.........0
Apr 1......5000
;)

[sisyphus]

I hate to throw cold water on all this great and fun speculation, but that IS all it is at this time. It 's a really fun and cool guess, but no more than that. Until we begin getting calls from our dealers there is really no way of knowing for sure when our cars will arrive. The first 1000 seem to be a shoe-in for first quarter delivery, but no one can say with any certainty what cars will go where when. And that is a 90 day time spread! Don't rely on this speculation as fact as you may be disappointed, through no fault of smartUSA. Read it for the fun of it!
The Canadian forum has someone who can track deliveries of Canadian-bound deliveries by VIN, but he has not been able to track any US cars yet. Of course, those VINs would be of no use to us anyway, since we technically have no dealers that can give us any car-specific info or delivery dates yet. We wouldn't know where they're going!
Ah, yes! We're all going slowly nuts from the anticipation!