My Anaylsis Of Smart Car Protection

[tinysmart]

Nice to know!

[BobDiaz]

If you go to message #1, you'll see that I've updated the numbers with October sales. In addition, I've switched to a very conservative approach to estimating the number of expected deaths. I've re-written the first message to better explain how the numbers are calculated.

At the end of October we would expect 3.95 deaths and at the end of November, assuming zero car sales, we would expect 4.26 deaths. So far, all I can find are just the 2 deaths in the US.

As I've said before, having 1/2 the expected number of deaths does NOT sound like the car is a "Death Trap". The real world data does not match this flawed assumption.


Bob Diaz

[chieftmc]

Thank you for all your effort Bob

I always look forward to your report

[Neonspinnazz]

sɹǝqɯnu ɹnoʎ ʇǝƃ noʎ ǝɹǝɥʍ ǝnlɔ ou ǝʌɐɥ ı `ǝɯ sǝzɐɯɐ llıʇs ɥɔɹɐǝsǝɹ ɹnoʎ

[SuperGeek]

Originally Posted by Neonspinnazz

sɹǝqɯnu ɹnoʎ ʇǝƃ noʎ ǝɹǝɥʍ ǝnlɔ ou ǝʌɐɥ ı `ǝɯ sǝzɐɯɐ llıʇs ɥɔɹɐǝsǝɹ ɹnoʎ

Teach me to do that, wise young prodigy.

[Smart Enuf]

Originally Posted by SuperGeek

Teach me to do that, wise young prodigy.

(-؛ ¡sʞuɐɥ⊥ ˙ʃʃǝʍ sɐ ʍouʞ oʇ ʇuɐʍ I

[BobDiaz]

Originally Posted by Neonspinnazz

your research still amazes me, i have no clue where you get your numbers

The FARS Data, see link below, provides the standard on which I base my model for the average car.

FARS Encyclopedia: Reports

In a nutshell, 1 out of every 120,000 cars results in a death for the driver every month. I just take the total number of smart fortwos on the road (that month) and divide that number by 120,000 to get the expected deaths for that month. I know there's no such a thing as a fractional death, but the risk factor is added for all the months up to that month. As more cars are sold, the total number of smarts on the road increases. A spreadsheet takes care of the grunt work for the calculations.


While the model could be improved, I don't have the time or money to do a research project to adjust the model. However, as a rough indicator, it does point to the fact that the number of real deaths vs. expected deaths is in the range that strongly suggests the smart fortwo is a very safe car.


Bob Diaz

[forestacademy]

Hey Bob, Here is some more data for you from the IIHS
IIHS Research: Auto insurance loss facts
Start at the top of the list of documents, you will be pleasantly surprised.

And I beleive the smart is the only car currently in the Micro car class.
Also note, several of the charts do not even have a Micro class included. To me that means there is no data for the smart

OVERALL COMPREHENSIVE LOSSES
Micro 2-door cars had the lowest overall losses, followed by very large 4-door cars

COLLISION COVERAGE

COMPARISON OF LOSSES BY VEHICLE CLASS AND SIZE/WEIGHT GROUP, 2006-08 MODELS

Micro 2-door cars had the lowest claim frequencies

(35), and small 2-door cars had the highest (134).

[BobDiaz]

WOW!!! Thanks.

This is solid gold for studying the data. Just a quick glance seems to support the idea that the smart is less likely to get into an accident and in the event it does, is less likely to result in more expensive (worse) injuries.

It's going to take me a while to fully study the data....


Bob Diaz

[BobDiaz]

Special thanks to forestacademy for finding this information:

In looking through the main link: IIHS Research: Auto insurance loss facts

It appears that under #4

* Personal injury protection coverage: comparison of losses by vehicle class and size/weight group, 2006-08 models

is the key link to look at (the link below).

http://www.iihs.org/research/hldi/fa...erage_0909.pdf

This link points to the key data we are interested in:

Personal injury protection coverage insures against medical, hospital, and other expenses for injuries sustained in crashes to insured drivers and other people in their vehicles, regardless of who is at fault in the collision.

There is only one car that fits in the 2 door micro category in the IIHS's data, the Smart Car; better know as the smart fortwo. Thus any reference to a 2 door micro car has to be the smart.

Under "Relative claim frequency" the Smart shows 82; where average car is 100 and lower numbers represent less claims. In comparison, a 2 door mini is 107 and a 2 door small is 147; both higher than normal. A 4 door mini is 184 and a 4 door small is 144.

Let's consider three possible explanations for the reductions in claims:

(1) The ESP (Electronic Stability Program), Brake Assist, and Anti-Lock Brakes help to avoid the number of accidents: This is the most believable, because if you search through the IIHS web pages, their tests show that ESP helps drivers help to avoid accidents. If you avoid an accident, you don't have to submit a claim.

(2) smart fortwo drivers are more careful drivers: I can't rule this out as a factor, but then again, I don't have any data to show that Smart drivers are more careful. So, this remains an unknown.

(3) smart fortwo drivers drive less miles per year than other drivers: There's nothing to show this, but there is a simple non-scientific survey on this forum that suggests that smart drivers drive MORE miles per year than the average driver. Roughly 1.25 times more miles per year and increased miles equals increased risk.

Number 1 seems the most probable explanation, but I can't fully rule out number 2 playing a part in the reduction of claims. No matter what, the driver in the Smart fortwo is less likely to have accident than the driver in the average car.


In "RELATIVE AVG LOSS PAYMENTS PER CLAIM", the smart was 94 and the average car was 100. One would expect that a car that was a "Death Trap" would have a higher level of injury than below average and greater injuries translate into higher medical costs. Clearly, the smart fortwo does NOT fit the pattern of unsafe and higher risk of injury in an accident.

Unfortunately this number is a bit distorted by the fact that larger cars tend to hold more people, resulting in higher costs when there are multiple people on board. However, the majotity of solo drivers is very high, roughly 75.5% (USA average to work). Thus, the impact of extra people in the car is reduced by the high number of solo drivers.

United States and States - R0802. Percent of Workers Who Traveled to Work by Car, Truck, or Van Alone


The IIHS's data is consistent with my findings that the Smart Car is a safe car and NOT a "Death Trap".


Bob Diaz