Interesting How People Perceive ABS Safety Vs. Facts

[RussBarnes]

I found this report interesting and to me quite typical of how many new creations that seem like solutions to problems don't equate into real life experiences. We humans get caught up in the expectations, but the facts don't support them. I wonder if this isn't what happened with Ethanol and time will tell if it isn't the same hopeful belief that electric cars will solve much.

ABS Doesn’t Reduce Fatalities, NHTSA Report Says
Aug 26, 2009 1:51 PM

Antilock brake systems (ABS) have close to a zero net effect on fatal crash involvements, according to a report by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA).
NHTSA’s “Technical Report on the Long-Term Effect of ABS in Passenger Cars and Light Trucks and Vans (LTVs)” is a statistical analysis based on data for calendar years 1995 to 2007 from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) and the General Estimates System (GES) of the National Automotive Sampling System (NASS).

The report’s conclusions:

• The long-term overall effect of ABS on fatal crash involvements is close to zero in both cars and LTVs. The observed effect in cars is a 1-percent reduction (90% confidence bounds range from a 2% increase to a 4% reduction). The observed effect in LTVs is a 1-percent increase (confidence bounds: -6% to 4%).
• But the overall effect of ABS on all crash involvements, including nonfatal involvements is beneficial and statistically significant in both cars and LTVs. The observed reductions are 6 percent in cars (confidence bounds: 4% to 8%) and 8 percent in LTVs (confidence bounds: 3% to 11%).
• The overall reduction of nonfatal-injury crashes is approximately the same as the reduction of all crashes.
• Fatal run-off-road crashes increase with ABS by a statistically significant 9 percent in cars (confidence bounds: 3% to 15% increase). The long-term effect is substantially smaller than in the early years of ABS (28% increase), but it is still a significant increase. The observed effect in LTVs is a non-significant 6-percent increase (confidence bounds: -16% to 3%).
• On wet, snowy, or icy roads, where ABS is most likely to activate, the increase in fatal run-off-road crashes is a statistically significant 34 percent in passenger cars (confidence bounds: 20% to 50% increase). On these roads, all three types of fatal run-off-road crashes increase significantly for cars and so do fatal rollovers of LTVs.
• On dry roads, the increase in fatal run-off-road crashes is a non-significant 4 percent in passenger cars.
• Side impacts with fixed objects generally increase even more with ABS than other types of run-off-road crashes (except for LTV fatalities). Fatal and nonfatal crashes both increase significantly for passenger cars.
• The statistical analyses continue to show persistent, significant increases in run-off-road crashes with ABS, especially on wet roads. They remain at odds with the impressive performance of ABS on the test track, especially on wet roads. They do not tally with the benefits of ABS observed in other types of crashes. We are still unable to provide a convincing explanation or empirical evidence (other than the crash statistics themselves) for the increase in run-off-road crashes.
• Fatal collisions with pedestrians, bicyclists, or animals decrease significantly, overall, with ABS. The observed reductions are 13 percent in cars (confidence bounds: 5% to 20%) and 14 percent in LTVs (confidence bounds: 3% to 25%). But the observed effects on wet, snowy, or icy roads are not positive.
• Fatal run-off-road crashes of passenger cars increased by a statistically significant 9 percent (90% confidence bounds: 3% to 15% increase), offset by a significant 13-percent reduction in fatal collisions with pedestrians (confidence bounds: 5% to 20%) and a significant 12-percent reduction in collisions with other vehicles on wet roads (confidence bounds: 3% to 20%). ABS is quite effective in nonfatal crashes, reducing the overall crash involvement rate by 6 percent in passenger cars (confidence bounds: 4% to 8%) and by 8 percent in LTVs (confidence bounds: 3% to 11%). The combination of electronic stability control (ESC) and ABS will prevent a large proportion of fatal and nonfatal crashes.

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© 2009 Penton Media Inc.

[limey]

So what does that tell us?

Possibly that in most fatal collisions at least one vehicle never touches their brakes, so it's no surprise that ABS doesn't make a difference?

I suspect the increase in single vehicles running off the road is because people know they have a safety net, so they take even greater risks. When you don't have 4WD, ABS and umpteen airbags, you drive like a little old lady when it is raining or snowy. Add all the safety equipment and you feel invulnerable and you drive accordingly.

[Godfather]

"I thought my ABS would stop the car"....... famous quote at several crashes I investigated. On ice.........

[John_H]

A possibility for the off-road increase: ABS will tend to keep the car moving in a straight line. Going off-road means you're up against the vague traction of gravel and grass. In a spin, it's much easier to slow the car than in a relatively straight line.

I'd much prefer to stay on the road!

[dovienya]

I think I might have misread something there. It sounded to me like the results are that MORE crashes result in fatalities now, than prior to the ABS days.

But the thing is, that would make sense to me. Arent ABS supposed to help avoid the crash altogether?

So I would anticipate that when a person loses control of their vehicle in a way that ABS is unable to help compensate for, it is more likely to be a BAD situation. As such, ABS would help reduce a total number of accidents, but wouldnt really help with the particularly bad ones that are the most likely to result in fatalities.

If that supposition is true, then the net result of a lower accident pool with the same amount of fatalities would indeed be a higher percentage of accidents are fatal.

I hate statistics. Due to how easy it is to make them complicated, people can pretty much make them say whatever they want.

[jwight]

Not sure what we're supposed to glean from this - I guess all the cars had seat belts, so you could make the same case for seat belts not being effective (certainly if no one in the car uses them.) Either not hitting the brakes or hitting them past the point where ABS can overcome the laws of physics - both situations could be buried in these statistics. Would I prefer to drive a car without ABS based on this study? No way.

[John_H]

I'm a little concerned actually that the article is copied here yet the options from the copyright link seem to suggest that our original poster didn't obtain permission from the publisher in the forms that they offer.

For these kinds of articles, a link to the original article is more appropriate than copying and pasting copyrighted material.

[forestacademy]

ABS is only 1/2 the story

Traction control and ESP are the other 1/2 that that doesn't cover. ABS has its limitations that the other systems help with

[jwight]

Originally Posted by forestacademy

ABS is only 1/2 the story

Traction control and ESP are the other 1/2 that that doesn't cover. ABS has its limitations that the other systems help with

The last sentence in the final paragraph covers that.

Not sure how this media company gets to copyright a government document - which is available to the public and is not copyrighted. Anyway, here's another NHTSA study to confuse the issue even more: http://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/pdf/nrd...16/98S2O07.PDF

PS - it's getting harder to kill people in crashes now - all the added airbags, ESP, BFD, ABS, and better structural design. I'm guessing, but more accidents will be non-fatal as time goes by, and the fatal ones will be really ugly.