Read These Articles (world oil)

[cosmart]

washingtonpost.com

washingtonpost.com


Look at the charts showing who are the world's largest oil importers and how much they import, and the exporters and what they export. Think about the flow of money.

BTW, that 1.1 million barrels a day we currently import from Mexico is expected to drop to zero within seven years. Three things will then happen. The Mexican government will go broke(40% of the the Mexican government's revenue is from oil exports), Mexico will start competing on the world market for oil, and we will give even more money to places like Saudi and Nigeria.

Canada's oil sands production is creating all kinds of environmental and water issues, and the 3 million barrels a day by 2015 target is in jeopardy. Brazil is years off from production from their fields.

Read the stories.

Get back to me on the solution.

We should all be losing sleep over the danger, but instead we have people sleepwalking.

Peak oil is real. Sometime between 2010 and 2015, we will be in a world of hurt.

[dbwill]

In 2002, I heard a presentation by a well known geologist. I don't remember his mane but he is recognized as one of the premier geologists in the world. His projection is that we can take positive steps to conserve now or by about 2015 we will have conservation due to price. If we think that the current situation is tough on the economy think what it will be if price causes mandatory conservation.

Down off my soap box now

[BobDiaz]

His projection is that we can take positive steps to conserve now or by about 2015 we will have conservation due to price.

To some degree, we already have that today. SUV sales have fallen badly and dealers are stuck with gas hogs they can't sell. Motorcycle and Motor scooter sales have increased. Sales of the smaller high millage cars have risen.

In LA, the light rail system is packed with people. A year ago, I could always find lots of open parking spaces in the Willow Station Park and Ride lot, but today, all the parking spots are full.

The interest in the Smart Car with high millage and low cost is partly due to high gas prices.

For now, the gas prices have dropped some, but watch them rise again in 2009.



Bob Diaz

[vwW12]

Originally Posted by cosmart

Peak oil is real. Sometime between 2010 and 2015, we will be in a world of hurt.

Now, where have I heard this before?

Ahh, yes:

1855 - “hurry, before this wonderful product is depleted from Nature’s laboratory”

1920 - U.S. Geological Survey announced that the world’s total endowment of oil amounted to 60 billion barrels

1950 - geologists estimated the world’s total oil endowment at around 600 billion barrels

1989 - "world oil production would peak that very year and oil prices would reach $50 a barrel by 1994

1994 - U.S. Geological Survey raised the estimate to 2,400 billion barrels, and their most recent estimate (

2000 - U.S. Geological Survey raised the estimate to 3,000-billion-barrel endowment

Source.


No shortage of oil, yet there is never a shortage of chicken littles.

[cosmart]

Originally Posted by vwW12

Now, where have I heard this before?

Ahh, yes:

1855 - “hurry, before this wonderful product is depleted from Nature’s laboratory”

1920 - U.S. Geological Survey announced that the world’s total endowment of oil amounted to 60 billion barrels

1950 - geologists estimated the world’s total oil endowment at around 600 billion barrels

1989 - "world oil production would peak that very year and oil prices would reach $50 a barrel by 1994

1994 - U.S. Geological Survey raised the estimate to 2,400 billion barrels, and their most recent estimate (

2000 - U.S. Geological Survey raised the estimate to 3,000-billion-barrel endowment

Source.


No shortage of oil, yet there is never a shortage of chicken littles.

This is the #1 comeback of the uninformed. Peak oil is not about running out of oil. It is about reaching the maximum possible production rate. No one is saying there won't be oil 10-20-50-100 years from now. What is a fact though, and geologists and oil industry CEO's agree on this, is that the maximum oil production we will ever see is somewhere between today's 86 million barrels a day, and 100 million barrels a day. And, production will gradually decline from that peak.


Oil is not water, and it does not fall from the sky. An oil well is not a water well that once it is pumped dry, you can let it rest and the water comes back. Once oil is gone out of a well, it is gone forever. Some older wells can be reopened and water injected to get out a little more oil, but all modern oil fields are finished with water injection and when they are done, they are done.

The Peak Oil theory says that the ultimate production rate curve will roughly match the discovery curve. M. King Hubbert predicted in the 1950's that oil production in the US would peak in the early 1970's, and it did. Imagine being an oil company scientist in the 1950's when there were still gushers in Texas and OK, and telling your bosses that oil production would peak in 13 years. Using the same forecasting techniques, the world peak was projected to be in the 1990's, but that did not account for the fall off in demand due to the oil crisis's in the 70's and 80's. Now that past and future demand destructions are factored in, the peak estimated to be between 2010 and 2015, although many people think we are already there. Oil production has not increased significantly since 2005, despite massive price increases. This flies in the face of economics which says in a commodity market, massive price increases will generate massive increases in production. Oil is no longer a commodity market, and that is the problem.

In a commodity market, when one producer raises their prices, the market responds in one of three ways, they turn to another producer, they find an alternative or they forgo the use of the product. We can't do any of the three.

In the early days of petroleum, Texas was the 'swing producer' in the oil market. When there was an increase in demand, Texas would pump more oil to cover the demand. After US Peak Oil in 1970, that role was assumed by the Saudis. Now, there *is no* swing producer left. When demand rises, NO oil producer can pump a significant increase. You may recall that Dick Cheney and GWB both personally visited the Saudis this year. They were there to ask SA to pump more oil. This was documented in thousands of news stories. The response from the Saudis was that they are from now on leaving oil in the ground for future generations. No big deal, right? Just turn to another producer, right?

Read theoildrum.com for a few weeks. Then get back to me on how you are smarter than the hundreds of geologists, economists and oil industry people who post over there.

No reputable geologist or oil industry executive denies Peak Oil at this point. It is only a question of when.

[MPrice2984]

Why wait until the sky caves in? The world is full of 'chicken littles' is a cop out. There may not be a shortage of oil right now, but most Americans have a shortage of money to pay for it and it has destroyed the world we live in because of the pollution from it. I moved to the Chicago area 7 years ago, and because of strict pollution enforcement on the steel mills it was actually green in most areas. When President Bush over ruled the EPA and allowed the mills to turn off the scrubbers and burn high sulpher coal again, four years later things are turning brown again and orange sh*# is coming out of the smelter stacks again. There are areas where the air stinks so bad some days it is almost unbreathable. But I guess that's OK, most of the people who live around the mills don't really count do they. If they can't afford to move away from the problem f*$k em, right. When I ordered my smart it was to say I care about the world I live in and that I want my kids and all others in the future to have a decent life.

[vwW12]

Originally Posted by cosmart

No reputable geologist or oil industry executive denies Peak Oil at this point. It is only a question of when.

Agreed. When, indeed?

And why should we worry? The U.S. used to light up at night on whale oil before smart free enterprise men, without government subsidies, came up with the revolutionary idea of using oil from stones, petro-oil, petroleum, to supply the needs of an ever growing country.

When we get to peak oil, which could be many, many years down the road, some one else will come up with nuclear power solutions, or Mr. Fusion, or whatever.

For the time being, we are far, far from peak oil, so long as Congress ceases to:
1. prohibit exploration (let alone drilling) in most of our seas,
2. prohibit use of our massive oil shales in Colorado and Utah
3. prohibit use of 2,000 acres in ANWR

[cosmart]

Originally Posted by vwW12

Agreed. When, indeed?

And why should we worry? The U.S. used to light up at night on whale oil before smart free enterprise men, without government subsidies, came up with the revolutionary idea of using oil from stones, petro-oil, petroleum, to supply the needs of an ever growing country.

When we get to peak oil, which could be many, many years down the road, some one else will come up with nuclear power solutions, or Mr. Fusion, or whatever.

For the time being, we are far, far from peak oil, so long as Congress ceases to:
1. prohibit exploration (let alone drilling) in most of our seas,
2. prohibit use of our massive oil shales in Colorado and Utah
3. prohibit use of 2,000 acres in ANWR

OK. Discarding oil shale, which will never be viable as a pure energy source, only as a conversion from electricity to liquid fuel (why not just use the electricity directly?), exactly how much oil would we possibly get if we opened all off limits areas?

The best, best case oil industry estimate is on the internet. I'll give you a hint: API. Go dig it up for us, and using the current 20 million barrel a day oil consumption in the US, tell us all exactly how long we are going to last until we are COMPLETELY out of oil.

I think you might be surprised.

[allynkenith]

Yes, Canada's oil sands production is creating somany kinds of environmental issues and water issues. For more information visit this site: lincenergy.us

[grwhitaker]

While I am not philosophically opposed to turning Utah into one vast open pit mine in order to extract oil shale [tongue planted firmly in cheek] the extraction and refining costs alone are astronomical. This does not even begin to factor in the amount of water that would be required to process oil shale [something that is already under severe pressure to meet the demands of the growing population and agribusiness of the West and West Coast] The amount of electrical power needed would probably permanently brown out the West and West Coast, and require more and more high sulfer coal to be burned to fire up the coal burning plants in the West. The Four Corners area [Arizona/Utah/Colorado/New Mexico] is already one of the worst air pollution hot spots in the United States due to its coal fired electrical plants.

The development of clean electrical power [hydro-electric, natural gas fired plants, wind turbine, and solar] holds better 21st century answers to 21st century problems then trying the same, tired answers that got us degraded air, ground water, and oceans we are still struggling to clean up. I personally do not consider nuclear power to be off the table, but I understand the concerns of those who do not consider it to be a safe and reliable electrical generating method, due to spent fuel disposal, cooling water degradation, and increased potential of terrorist attacks on nuclear generating plants and subsequent radiation fall-out.

Bottom line-reasonable people will leave oil shale permanently off the table.