conf date model

[smart1]

I've been using the reservation dates and confirmation dates posted in this forum to see if I could model and predict when others might expect to get their confirmation e-mail. I used an exponential function to model it- it looks right, and it makes sense to me that most confirmations happened at the beginning and then dropped off. I can't seem to post the graph, but the fit is fairly good. The fit I get is: confirmation date = 18.61 days * (ln(reservation date code - 1172) + 0.346) + Sept 10 (I chose Sep 10 arbitrarily even though I know confirmations started before then).

For example, for my reservation date code of 1176 (March 22), the ln (that's natural logarithm) function would be ln(4) which is 1.386. Calculating the rest of the expression gives 32.2 days after Sept 10 which comes to Oct 12. I actually got my confirmation e-mail on Oct 16. Keep in mind that this model is very approximate, and it assumes that the rate of confirmations doesn't change and that the reservations did follow a simple exponential pattern. I calculated confirmation dates for reservation codes already confirmed, and here's the comparison:
res date code calc conf date reported conf date
1173 Sep 16 Sep 14 and Sep 17
1183 Nov 1 Oct 26
1185 Nov 4 Nov 6
1178 Oct 19 Oct 16
You get the idea- close.

Using this, I calculated expected confirmation dates for future date codes:
Res date code Conf date
1190 Nov 9
1200 Nov 17
1210 Nov 23
1220 Nov 27
1230 Dec 1
1240 Dec 4
1250 Dec 6
1280 Dec 12
1300 Dec 15

It won't be exact, but hopefully this gives some expectation of when you might hear something.

[Carnut]

Nice effort. Your efforts are appreciated - BUT. . . .

I'm a 1369 (10/1/07). Based on announced production of approximately 24,000 units in 2008 (2000 per month) and the fact that there were approx 30,000 reservations placed by October 1, 2007, I doubt I will be asked to configure anytime prior to the summer of 2008 at best. There should be no reason for the factory to receive orders too far in advance. As I recall in his latest speech Penske said the the first 2000 will definitley receive their cars in the first quarter. I believe this was his way of hedging for the first month's factory production. I would imagine that there will be at least a three to four week lag from manufacture to delivery due to logistics and distribution.

[mfoster]

Smart1, I hope you're close. 1262 here.

[Lewis]

Your model has 1190 on 11/9

Wish you were right as I'm 1189- and no confirmation email as of 11/8.

As far as I know they are up to 1185 today- 11/8.

[SnakeFarm]

Oh no. I'm 1363. I don't know if my '97 geo tracker will last another 12 months.

don't panic don't panic don't panic don't panic <breath> don't panic don't panic don't panic don't panic <breath> don't panic don't panic don't panic don't panic <breath> don't panic don't panic don't panic don't panic <breath> don't panic don't panic don't panic don't panic <breath>

[E-SMART]

but nothing this morning yet ... was expecting more like early next week but we'll see!

[Lewis]

E-smart the last reported confirm was 1185- I think we have a 2-3 week wait before we get our confirmation invitation. :-(

[E-SMART]

so I'm not concerned yet until smart USA changes the delivery timing drastically to 2009! We've cleared a space in the garage, already have the unique license plate, and picked which dealer (if they stick to the two most frequently mentioned) .... so now of course we wait. It would be nice to be pleasantly surprised that they're moving faster through the resv' numbers so we'll see ...

[Lewis]

Last time I chatted with the phone rep at the 800 # he said their server was down for a week and that they'd be speeding up the process now to make up for the lost week (this was about 2 weeks ago). The confirmation process has indeed quickened since then. I just hope the process continues to go faster and that it represents speedy availability of the deliveries, which after all is what this is all about. The process has been so convoluted that sometimes I almost lose sight of THAT.

I think the really critical thing we could know is, given how much lead time it takes to reserve a ship, and the 2 weeks or so it takes that ship to cross the Atlantic, and the fact PAG has to be ready to truck the cars from the port (requiring reservations of haulers) what the schedule is regarding shipping from the factory must be known by PAG. This all doesn't just happen by chance- it is well planned in advance to go smoothly.

Good luck trying to find that out!

[Carnut]

Fellow waiters (as in waiting for delivery as opposed to serving food) simple math should tell us that weekly production will be 500 to 600 cars per week max. Dealers were told their allocation will be approx 30 units per month. Let's not get lost in a dream world although it is tempting.