An odd take on US Smart Car Sales

[SMART]

I was reading through some regular smart car sources I check and I came across a Canadian fellow touting numbers he thinks to see when the car is launched and sold here in the US. Please see below:

[I]For US people getting their first smart it will be just fine, and for those awaiting a Brabus or preparing to mod the car themselves, it

[Lewis]

I think it's anyone's guess but I guarantee one thing- this group is HIGHLY unrepresentative. After the initial group of early adapters are satisfied there is a great deal of resistance in the general public if my personal experience is any indication. Most people who find out I've reserved a Smartcar tell me they would never ride in it because something that small in their minds simply cannot be safe.

One proviso- if gas hits say $5/gallon which it could easily do if Bush decides bomb Iran then ALL bets are off.

[jonnysan]

Originally Posted by Lewis

Most people who find out I've reserved a Smartcar tell me they would never ride in it because something that small in their minds simply cannot be safe.

One proviso- if gas hits say $5/gallon which it could easily do if Bush decides bomb Iran then ALL bets are off.

I have had small cars all my life and can tell you with experience that if you have your head screwed on straight and are a good defensive driver, the likelihood of getting squashed is MUCH less due to the fact that the smaller car enables avoiding the accident altogether due to their nimbleness.
Those who chose to think they can remain safe with their big gas hogs can simply pay the price....simple as that.

[SmartCard]

I would think with unlimited production, the sales might be 30,000 the first year and 15 - 20,000 in subsequent years. Certainly, as others have mentioned, high gas prices and additional powertrains (turbo, CDI) would be needed to keep the sales rubust.

[Lewis]

I do agree that the CDI would be a big boost to sales. Going from a realistic 40 mpg with the gasoline model to 60-70 mpg with the diesel would make the sales proposition a lot stronger. I always rent a diesel in Europe and take it from me- a former 1975 VW rabbit diesel owner- they've come a long way with the new low pressure turbos and common rail injection systems.

[Old smart]

Don't look for a smart diesel here anytime soon, if ever.

The EPA set a 2007 road diesel standard that includes passenger cars before all the required technology was available. They are hoping for emerging technology (progress), but it is still a ways off. The NOx control equipment remains a

[Lewis]

You're probably correct Fish with current technology but I have read some articles regarding the fact that Honda has a 50 state diesel model coming in next year with the Accord that requires no add ons to meet the rules so perhaps there will be some advances down the road. I think also as long as Smart has a 2-3 year waiting list why bother with the diesel which suggests even if they can meet the rules technologically from a marketing perspective why bring in a complicated new model if they can't even build enough of the basic one?

[Old smart]

Mitsubishi is doing something similar to Honda. But even without urea tanks and injectors, it is still a three component (but maybe not three discrete piece) system. I wonder if such a thing can be physically reduced in size to the extent that there is somewhere to put it in/under a smart - there still has to be a muffler there too. I hope it isn't a case of smart being undersized out of the ability to comply.

[lhoboy]

Originally Posted by SMART

What are some realistic numbers you think could happen if the production was available?

As mentioned by others, the first year will see the largest demand primarily due to the early adopters. The car has failed to yield significant sales in Europe, which is a far greener consumer market than here in the U.S. $5+/gallon fuel prices certainly will turn the fortune of this marque. Otherwise the sales figures will languish in the sub 30,000 unit/year range.

[MicroNut]

Originally Posted by lhoboy

As mentioned by others, the first year will see the largest demand primarily due to the early adopters...

This new MarketWatch article makes some interesting observations (positive and negative) on the smart's longer term potential in the US:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...00DA92BA1D6%7D