smart reports 30% attrition - NY Times 1/14/08

[spdickey]

Orphan hunters, get ready!

http://wheels.blogs.nytimes.com/2008...art-car-sells/

Originally Posted by nytimes.com

But there’s been a little snag in small car paradise. Only about 70 percent of would-be buyers, those who made $99 deposits, are following through with a purchase, a Smart spokesman told our Tim Moran on Sunday. In some cases, email contacts or phone numbers have changed; in others, potential buyer have changed their minds.

“It’s not an order until the car is physically taken possession of,” the spokesman said, adding that it was likely that some Smart cars, which cost between $11,600 and $18,000, might be available on dealer lots.

30,000 orders (is this before or after the attrition?). 20,000 production (25,000 ???). 70% of 30,000 is 21,000. If this keeps up, all the people who want one by the end of 2008 will get one.


http://www.industryweek.com/ReadArti...rticleID=15649

Originally Posted by Agence France-Presse

Since last March, Smart USA received more than 30,000 orders, which were sealed by prospective buyers making a $99 down payment. The company believes 70% of these preliminary orders will result in final sales, said Ken Kettenbeil, Daimler's director of communications.

[SmartShanna]

I think that would be 30% attrition--your headline scared me SP

[sisyphus]

Um, no. According to the article, that would be 30% attrition. 70% of reservers are following through.

[sisyphus]

Shanna, that's creepy! Look at our posting times!

[spdickey]

Originally Posted by sisyphus

Shanna, that's creepy! Look at our posting times!

And check out how fast I fixed the headline!

[SmartShanna]

Okay, guys, this is all too weird! great minds...

[wwhopper]

I had a change of heart after the driving session this summer. Now I am waiting to see the one I want up close and without a line of people in front or behind me waiting to get in to it.

No doubt some people have just forgotten their deposit too!

Still really would love the Roadster, but they stopped making that. We drove that at a Mercedes-Benz Club national event in 2004, what fun. That one would be YES, no question!

[MicroNut]

Very Interesting!

I'm surprised that the attrition rate is so high among, presumably at this point, 1173's. Surely it can only go higher as they work further down the line to the less fanatical reservers.

I note the article also state the total number of units available in 2008 as 20,000. If there are currently 45,000 reservation holders, and overall attrition reaches, say, 50%, PAG will still need to manage those orphans very carefully to satisfy demand.

[spdickey]

Originally Posted by MicroNut

Very Interesting!

I'm surprised that the attrition rate is so high among, presumably at this point, 1173's. Surely it can only go higher as they work further down the line to the less fanatical reservers.

I note the article also state the total number of units available in 2008 as 20,000. If there are currently 45,000 reservation holders, and overall attrition reaches, say, 50%, PAG will still need to manage those orphans very carefully to satisfy demand.

The attrition rate goes higher the longer people wait. As the backlog increases, so will the final attrition. They may be keeping to that 30,000 number as "active reservations" and may all ready subtracting the ones who are/may drop out later. My dealer all ready had one out of his first 20 forgot he even made a deposit.

Also doing this means new people will still come in to dealers to see, drive, reserve and possibly be sold smarts. Not bad marketing actually!

[CruisingAZ]

It would be interesting to see which markets this is in, I wonder if it is higher in the cities where they made the road show stops or lower in those cities.