Guesstimation

[saronian]

With such a dearth of information from official sources I'm going stir-crazy waiting for my 1188 in San Francisco. Nothing left to do but guesstimate when the little bugger will arrive.

Orphans aside, I've waited too long to compromise. More power to you that have legitimately grabbed those abandoned puppies. Every day I'm reminded that I work only a couple blocks from both the SF SPCA & smart Center SF. So far the SPCA is delivering more little animals per day than the smart dealership. Passing buy the daily 4 or 5 fortwos lined up and awaiting pickup by their eager parent. I'm happy for you, really I am. Honestly! Maybe I should adopt a cat while waiting for the new car.

Here's my calculation on where we stand in deliveries. Last year Roger P. said there were focused on the first 5000 deliveries and wanted to make it happen in the first quarter of 2008. Some have heard 1400 were delivered in January, another 1400 are on their way for February, and 2000 are planned for March. I've heard other's guess that between 350-400 are delivered each week, which matches the attempt to deliver 5000 in three months. Now my reservation was on the 15th day (1188) which puts it at about 5300 considering a weekly flow of 350 cars. So a March delivery could be possible.

As long as PAG is silent and closely guarding their database, I think any and all guesstimates should be considered legitimate.

Possible variables?
The factory is supposed to be producing 500-600 per month for the US.

Reservations are probably heavily skewed toward 1173, perhaps a few thousand that first week.

Area desirability. NorCal may have a large number of early reservations.

[Smartdavis]

I can't fault your reasoning. It seems to fit with what most posts are saying. It seems like all of California would have a larger group of reservation holders because we have the highest gas prices in the nation, and Californian's just love new things. Heck, this is where Apple started!

[SmartAzz]

I'm 1175 and there with ya - got the '30 notice', oh about 40 days ago and no idea where car is..

[PassionforPassionCT]

I think there is the inital rush of everybody who knew about ordered right away. So of course their would be more cars comprising lower dates. I would say once we get into mid to late april reservation time frame, we cover more reservation dates in one fell swoop. So instead of an entire shipment being 1173/1174s We have 1240s-1260's or something of that order.

[skyzdlimit59]

Originally Posted by SmartAzz

I'm 1175 and there with ya - got the '30 notice', oh about 40 days ago and no idea where car is..

Hang in there SmartAzz, I just got the call to pick her up 42 days after my 30 day notice. I called last Friday and insisted they give me some help in tracking it down. They did and it's here so you might want to start squeaking.

[saronian]

Well I'm encouraged by the postings of those that have been notified, even if some are taking a bit long to be delivered. I had no problem waiting the first 10 months, it the last few that are passing so slowly.

[Dave777]

Originally Posted by saronian

Well I'm encouraged by the postings of those that have been notified, even if some are taking a bit long to be delivered. I had no problem waiting the first 10 months, it the last few that are passing so slowly.

I can appreciate that you wish to wait for exactly what you ordered, but someone else may have ordered exactly that same car too and if you get on the orphan list with that request, what is there to lose? You may get "your car" much sooner than expected.

[saronian]

I agree, but was thoroughly dissuaded by the people at smart Center San Francisco. While they wouldn't say how many were on the list, they said it would be months before I was offered an orphan.

Didn't see the harm in adding my name, but was not offered the chance a month ago.

Now I'm hearing that the SF dealership is loading up the orphan’s prior to calling people. I can't blame them, but it's not in the smart spirit outlined by Penske. Probably a holdover from being a high-end Mercedes-Benz dealership.

[SmartAzz]

Originally Posted by saronian

I agree, but was thoroughly dissuaded by the people at smart Center San Francisco. While they wouldn't say how many were on the list, they said it would be months before I was offered an orphan.

Didn't see the harm in adding my name, but was not offered the chance a month ago.

So they are doing this with others, I was beginning to feel like the only one they were evading about the orphan list. We've asked about it from before they were open and aside from being outright ignored via phone messages/PM, in person they have been vague, said they don't expect many, and simply won't deal with any list. Having seen several people on here say they have gotten orphans is very frustrating - even someone from a non-related forum told me they walked into SF Smart and bought an orphan outright, of course SF had loaded it with stuff but still annoying to see that they are apparently avoiding offering orphans to reservation holders, even those *asking* for them.

(Or should I say some reservation holders, looks like they have deigned to select a few to let have an orphan but others they block for whatever reasons - it doesn't seem right.)

[Dave777]

Originally Posted by saronian

I agree, but was thoroughly dissuaded by the people at smart Center San Francisco. While they wouldn't say how many were on the list, they said it would be months before I was offered an orphan.

Didn't see the harm in adding my name, but was not offered the chance a month ago.

Now I'm hearing that the SF dealership is loading up the orphan’s prior to calling people. I can't blame them, but it's not in the smart spirit outlined by Penske. Probably a holdover from being a high-end Mercedes-Benz dealership.

Get on the lists at San Jose and Sacramento too.