i think the initial high orphan rate had more to do with people putting things on reservation lists that they had not yet driven than anything else. as the cars become more popular and now that dealers with demos actually exist, i would expect the orphan rate to drop precipitously.
the majority of the earlier orphans were generated by reservations made months before the first dealerships opened, months before anyone had test driven the car seriously, months before they began shipping to the country.
orphans being accepted today were still made by reservations last summer, long before the first smarts shipped.
by feb 09, orphans will have caught up to reservations made AFTER the dealerships opened and after potential buyers would have had a chance to test drive, inspect, look over closely and at their leisure the demos in the dealership. under those conditions, the buyer's intention is inherently more informed. which should lead to a more assured "follow-through" on their reservation, which would result in far fewer abandoned reservations.