IF Gas Prices reach $4 a gallon or higher...

[BobDiaz]

See:
http://www.zwire.com/site/news.cfm?n...d=575596&rfi=6

As far as guessing the future, it might happen, but it's not a given. However, IF gas reaches $4, $5 a gallon or higher in the US, do you think it would cause people to switch from the low millage SUVs to smaller higher mileage cars ... OR do you think that old habits die hard?

Bob Diaz

[MicroNut]

Bob, it's questions like that that make me glad I'm not an economist!

Realistically, I think there are two completely separate forces that might make people consider switching to higher mileage vehicles:

• The oil supply, and associated issues of price, national security, etc.
• The environment, and associated issues like global climate change.

The second reason is less tangible (in terms of dollars in your pocket), but may yet prove to be a lot more powerful as a motivator.

[spdickey]

Originally Posted by BobDiaz

See:
[url]IF gas reaches $4, $5 a gallon or higher in the US, do you think it would cause people to switch from the low millage SUVs to smaller higher mileage cars ...

If you just run the numbers and not the emotions, here is what you get. Assume old car paid for, smart paid with cash.

Sell Expedition, buy smart car

Old car 17 mpg, new smart 40 mpg, difference 23 mpg (using a big difference here to make my point)

Miles driven per year 15,000 (high mileage driver)

Gallons per year Expedition: 882
Gallons per year smart: 375
Gallons saved per year: 507
Dollars saved annually at $4/gal. $2028, $5/gal $2535

Payback on a $13,000 smart would take over five years at $5/gal, over six years at $4 gal. Over eight years at $3/gal.

It looks much worse if your current car gets better than 17 mpg right now, gas never gets as high as $4 per gallon or you drive less than this example.

I don't see a need to switch from a gas guzzler to a 40 mpg car just to save money on gas. There are lots of other reasons to do so, but not just to save some dollars at the pump.

But will people sell perfectly good cars to buy a smart because gas is going up? Sure they will, a lot of us are, including myself. But most of us have more reasons than this to buy our beautiful smarts!

[anthony94114]

IF gas reaches $4.00? It's been at or below $4.00 a gallon for super (which SO many cars specify) for months in San Francisco. We're living the reality already. $5? Couldn't possibly be far in the future...

[RLove]

I don't think the majority of people will look at any of this rationally - or do the numbers. Every time gas spikes you see the For Sale signs up on the SUV's, and when it lowers a bit the temporary tags show up on new SUV's again. We are not surrounded by rocket scientists, (the only one I know drives a hopped-up MINI) and they react to NOW and don't peer into the future.

I saw a news report a year ago that said that they had run a poll asking at what price would they dump their low mileage vehicle, and the average came to $4.54/gallon. Of course, if we just continue creeping up to it I would think that number would continue to rise as people grow used to it, falling victim to Big Oil's plan all along.

Personally, I'll be thrilled to be ahead of the curve when my Smart arrives.

Oh yeah, don't forget, the Smarts take super too!

[gotnobum]

I have a diesel PU that was getting 12mpg @$4.48/gal. It is now just for moving loads period. The Smart car is now for all other travel. I am looking into the posted technology of electrolysis to convert water into hydrogen, so the car will run on both. It should triple the gas mileage.

[jpauli]

About two years ago I told co-workers that gas would hit 5-6 a gal. by 2010. They did'nt take me seroiusly. My reason for such a prediction? China and India. China will out consume our use by 2010. For us to tap into our own reserves will take years, much of which needs prices to hit 80 dollars a barrel to be cost effective. Closing oil prices on Fri 18, 08 was $116.69. We as a nation must change the way we view autos. As http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loremo the creator of Loremo put it " it makes no sence to have a 3000lb vehicle propel a 180lb human. I also find it interesting that with current gas prices, people still fly by me on the interstate in single occupant trucks and SUV's. Truly sad. But buying a smart will make me glad

[Gentrification]

I'm loving my 2005 CDI ForTwo with every fill-up. I take 50% Biodiesel and I get between 60 to 70 mpg. One guy in our club has managed to get 100 mpg a few times.

I hope that things change so that they allow the new 451 diesels to be sold in the US and Canada. Increasing fuel prices might encourage that!

[Amethyste]

I think we'll pay just as much as Europeans do. It's not a matter of if, its a matter of when.

[saxdiva]

Paid $4.05 the other day in Burbank. Ho-hum.