Oil and gas prices

[gurps]

I found these graphs and thought that they have useful and interesting information.
Gas and oil prices seem to be trending upwards. If our economy doesn't torpedo everything, they just might continue upwards. Oil closed today ( 03/05/2010 ) near the high for 2009 and 2010, but day to day fluctuations arn't as meaningful as longer term movments

[crumb]

I find myself rooting for higher gas prices. More Smarts, less six thousand pound barges...

[BobDiaz]

Interesting chart, what's the link you got it from?


Bob Diaz

[OCMike]

I'm guessing here:

Gas Price Historical Price Charts - GasBuddy.com

Originally Posted by BobDiaz

Interesting chart, what's the link you got it from?


Bob Diaz

[gurps]

yup, gas budy is it. here is another place that I check oil prices. interesting to note that the price of oil and the price of gas are not in lock step with each other.

Code for Crude Oil Dashboard

[jwight]

Someone needs to overlay the oil and gas price charts - gurps is correct, there seems to be minimal linkage, although we are constantly told the change in gas prices is due to changing oil prices.

[vwW12]

Originally Posted by jwight

Someone needs to overlay the oil and gas price charts - gurps is correct, there seems to be minimal linkage

Price of gasoline is also impacted by refinery capacity, availability of stored oil, transportation cost, and most importantly, taxes, which are over 50% of the price paid at the pump.

For instance, in New Hampshire, today, pump taxes alone are 28%. In Florida today pump taxes alone are 31%.

[PDX-PLT]

Originally Posted by jwight

Someone needs to overlay the oil and gas price charts - gurps is correct, there seems to be minimal linkage, although we are constantly told the change in gas prices is due to changing oil prices.

It is, but it's not a tight linkage. Oil can be stored, so this tends to smooth out any changes due to predictable variations in demand (e.g. seasonal changes).

Also the markets for oil and refined products are much different. Much of world oil production is controlled by a cartel, OPEC, that attempts to limit competition between its members and impose monopolistic market conditions. The retail market for refined products is much more competitve, and consumption more price-sensitive. When oil when north of $130/bbl., the price of gasoline didn't go up by nearly that high a percentage change, even at $4+/gallon. Refineries ended up eating the difference; their profit margins were razor-thin.

[jwight]

Originally Posted by vwW12

Price of gasoline is also impacted by refinery capacity, availability of stored oil, transportation cost, and most importantly, taxes, which are over 50% of the price paid at the pump.

For instance, in New Hampshire, today, pump taxes alone are 28%. In Florida today pump taxes alone are 31%.

True, but the taxes don't change day-to-day; oil and gas prices seem to, at least in this country.

[BobDiaz]

It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year For Energy, Frank Holmes Says
Posted Mar 09, 2010 07:30am EST by Aaron Task in Investing, Commodities

Despite persistently high inventories, oil prices have climbed back above $80 per barrel and exceed $82 intraday Monday. The global economy, tension with Iran and the stock market's momentum have all been attributed for crude's recent rise. But it just might be the time of year.

Every commodity has its own "DNA of volatility," says Frank Holmes, CEO and CIO at U.S. Global Investors, which has just under $3 billion of assets under management. "Historically, oil bottoms between December and February. What's important now is this cyclical pattern usually drives oil up until September, with a lull in June."

Based on the past 30 years of data, Holmes says oil could easily hit $100 during this cyclical upturn, which most of us would feel at the pump. "[Retail] gas prices could hit $3 quite easily if we have a turn in the economy, there is positive job creation coupled with the normal seasonal pattern for oil and, then, what's taking place in the emerging markets," he says.

Barring a sudden spike back to the 2007 highs of $147 per barrel, Holmes believes the global economy can handle higher crude prices, and predicts oil is likely to move toward $90 in the near term.

While there's a short-term trade in commodities, Holmes says longer-term investors should focus on MLPs paying "fat, juicy dividends," like San Juan Basin Royalty Trust, which sports an 8% yield. "If you are in a process of thinking we're going to have higher energy prices over the next five years, I'm getting paid monthly - I sort of like that."

The money manager also notes major producers like Chevron and ConocoPhillips pay "attractive dividends" compared to what investors can get from bonds or money market funds, while offering the opportunity for capital appreciation.

it's the most wonderful time of the year for energy frank holmes says: Tech Ticker, Yahoo! Finance

I thought this was interesting and worth posting. Remember, this is NOT a given, but is based on what one expert feels.

If this does come to pass, gas will go up in price, good for Smart, bad for those gas sucking SUVs.


Bob Diaz