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I've been using the reservation dates and confirmation dates posted in this forum to see if I could model and predict when others might expect to get their confirmation e-mail. I used an exponential function to model it- it looks right, and it makes sense to me that most confirmations happened at the beginning and then dropped off. I can't seem to post the graph, but the fit is fairly good. The fit I get is: confirmation date = 18.61 days * (ln(reservation date code - 1172) + 0.346) + Sept 10 (I chose Sep 10 arbitrarily even though I know confirmations started before then).

For example, for my reservation date code of 1176 (March 22), the ln (that's natural logarithm) function would be ln(4) which is 1.386. Calculating the rest of the expression gives 32.2 days after Sept 10 which comes to Oct 12. I actually got my confirmation e-mail on Oct 16. Keep in mind that this model is very approximate, and it assumes that the rate of confirmations doesn't change and that the reservations did follow a simple exponential pattern. I calculated confirmation dates for reservation codes already confirmed, and here's the comparison:
res date code calc conf date reported conf date
1173 Sep 16 Sep 14 and Sep 17
1183 Nov 1 Oct 26
1185 Nov 4 Nov 6
1178 Oct 19 Oct 16
You get the idea- close.

Using this, I calculated expected confirmation dates for future date codes:
Res date code Conf date
1190 Nov 9
1200 Nov 17
1210 Nov 23
1220 Nov 27
1230 Dec 1
1240 Dec 4
1250 Dec 6
1280 Dec 12
1300 Dec 15

It won't be exact, but hopefully this gives some expectation of when you might hear something.
 

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Nice effort. Your efforts are appreciated - BUT. . . .

I'm a 1369 (10/1/07). Based on announced production of approximately 24,000 units in 2008 (2000 per month) and the fact that there were approx 30,000 reservations placed by October 1, 2007, I doubt I will be asked to configure anytime prior to the summer of 2008 at best. There should be no reason for the factory to receive orders too far in advance. As I recall in his latest speech Penske said the the first 2000 will definitley receive their cars in the first quarter. I believe this was his way of hedging for the first month's factory production. I would imagine that there will be at least a three to four week lag from manufacture to delivery due to logistics and distribution.
 

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Your model has 1190 on 11/9

Wish you were right as I'm 1189- and no confirmation email as of 11/8.

As far as I know they are up to 1185 today- 11/8.
 

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Oh no. I'm 1363. I don't know if my '97 geo tracker will last another 12 months.

don't panic don't panic don't panic don't panic <breath> don't panic don't panic don't panic don't panic <breath> don't panic don't panic don't panic don't panic <breath> don't panic don't panic don't panic don't panic <breath> don't panic don't panic don't panic don't panic <breath> :eek:
 

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I'm 1188 4/3/07 ... ohh, so close!

but nothing this morning yet ... was expecting more like early next week but we'll see!
 

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It's still just the 2nd step ...

so I'm not concerned yet until smart USA changes the delivery timing drastically to 2009! We've cleared a space in the garage, already have the unique license plate, and picked which dealer (if they stick to the two most frequently mentioned) .... so now of course we wait. It would be nice to be pleasantly surprised that they're moving faster through the resv' numbers so we'll see ...
 

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Last time I chatted with the phone rep at the 800 # he said their server was down for a week and that they'd be speeding up the process now to make up for the lost week (this was about 2 weeks ago). The confirmation process has indeed quickened since then. I just hope the process continues to go faster and that it represents speedy availability of the deliveries, which after all is what this is all about. The process has been so convoluted that sometimes I almost lose sight of THAT.

I think the really critical thing we could know is, given how much lead time it takes to reserve a ship, and the 2 weeks or so it takes that ship to cross the Atlantic, and the fact PAG has to be ready to truck the cars from the port (requiring reservations of haulers) what the schedule is regarding shipping from the factory must be known by PAG. This all doesn't just happen by chance- it is well planned in advance to go smoothly.

Good luck trying to find that out!
 

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Fellow waiters (as in waiting for delivery as opposed to serving food) simple math should tell us that weekly production will be 500 to 600 cars per week max. Dealers were told their allocation will be approx 30 units per month. Let's not get lost in a dream world although it is tempting.

:D
 

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Fellow waiters (as in waiting for delivery as opposed to serving food) simple math should tell us that weekly production will be 500 to 600 cars per week max. Dealers were told their allocation will be approx 30 units per month. Let's not get lost in a dream world although it is tempting.

:D
Unfortunately without the vital information of where we stand Numerically on the list (as opposed to our reservation date) which I am sure PAG has in a relational database (and will not reveal) we are just guessing when our delivery date will be.

While I agree that 500/day is a good guess on production rate the boats will carry thousands of Smarties thus telling us a lot about when they actually will arrive. Again, certain to be known to PAG (so they can line up the hauler trucks) but secret to us.

If we had our numerical place in line and knew the boat arrival dates and their capacities (all certain to be known to PAG) we could get a pretty good idea when we'll be behind the wheels of our Smarties!
 

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IB

Actually, it is Internet Brands (IB) that is doing all this for PAG, including passing the lists to the dealers when the time comes. I even think that when you call in to the 1-800-smartusa number you are calling something IB is running.
 

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Lead times on overseas shipments ...

I work for an import engine mfg (~ 225K per year to the states) and lead time for each container shipment is about 4 months (from Asia). As smart already ships cars to NA (Canada & Mexico) I'm sure those groups can enlighten us on time from order to delivery ... some on the Canadian site have even tracked their specific car over! As the pipeline gets up and running for the U.S. hopefully we'll get as sophisticated ... I remember 'ordering' my '99 Miata after the dealer was able to 'see' what cars were in the pipeline (I wanted Twilight Blue/Leather and a hardtop which apparently was a less popular combo -- the dealer was able to tell me within 2-3 days of when it would arrive at the port and then at his store, wasn't BS as it arrived right on time) ... I would also look forward to a time when you could take European delivery at the factory in France ... now that would be cool!!! :D
 

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Yes E-Smart-a euro delivery plan- THAT would be great- especially for me as I can fly to France for free. The difference with your Mazda and our Smarties though is that Mazda was willing to release the needed information and PAG seems strangely resistant.

I really do think the secrecy is a long range poor business decision (albiet making it easier for them in the short run by preserving their options) but obviously PAG differs.

Information inspires confidence secrecy inspires worry.

You know the boats are not like catching a cab. All this has been planned for months I'm sure.
 

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Yes E-Smart- THAT would be great- especially for me as I can fly to France for free. The difference with your Mazda and our Smarties though is that Mazda was willing to release the needed information and PAG seems strangely resistant.

I really do think the secrecy is a long range poor business decision (albiet making it easier for them in the short run by preserving their options) but obviously PAG differs.

Information inspires confidence secrecy inspires worry.
And incorrect information inspires distrust. PAG could tell us more, sure, but the more they tell us the more likely they'll tell us something which turns out not to be accurate. For example, if they told us exactly where each of us stood in the reservation line we would immediately demand the production rate for the USA smarts at Hambach (something I doubt they know). If they guessed at that number, we would then busily calculate when our smart would be built (ignoring, of course, the unknown drop-out rate of reservists) and then be disappointed when the car wasn't at the dealer on that day. I suggest you take a deep breath. And then take another. Christmas will come. It always has.
 

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IB

Yes but doesn't IB work for PAG?

i.e. these are Schembri's decisions?
They are certainly contracted by PAG, but I don't know how much compartmentalization there is. I know they are responsible to PAG for collecting, managing, and providing "leads," of which the whole reservation program is a part.

Some time back there was a copy of IB's contract with PAG (nee-UAG) posted on this forum.
 

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Well I can understand what you say- incorrect information is worse than nothing. I imagine they consider the anxious folk here on the forum a very tiny piece of their market and can see where the possiblity of dissappointments to the average buyer means more than satisfying our curiousity and impatience.
 

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IB is likely less concerned with our angst than PAG; they are just an intermediate service provider. Even smartUSA Distributor is a LLC.
 

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Is is possible that when the dealers are finally announced, and everything is said and done, that the online reservation system will be taken offline and replaced with a "find your local dealer" selection, so as if anyone is still wanting one at that point, would call their dealer directly?
 
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