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I’m wondering if smartUSA Distributor LLC is doing the same thing as the airlines – overbooking to an expected cancellation rate (or a little more). If in time we see that they close down the reservation program with 35,000 (or whatever) in hand to cover a 20,000 run, maybe they see evidence of an attrition rate of 43% (that would be a way high number!). But if that theory and that percentage held, and one was date-wise #20,000 on the list, then they may be in reality be 11,400th in the end.

Another thought is with the reservations continuing to pour in, supported by the $99 bills, perhaps smartUSA is using the figures and interest to leverage more factory production (in excess of 20k) to the U.S., which Mercedes Car Group may be happy to see.

As I have posted previously here, my estimate of overall attrition is 25%-30%, though not within this group. Participating in such an 1100 member group indicates a higher than average interest than the other 28,900 out there on their own. I think we may see 15%-20% here.
 
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