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As I understand it;

Step #1 -- Reserve for $99 bucks (still going on)

Step #2 -- Configure for free via e-mail invite from IB (started in Sept --- up to early April step #1 folks now)

Do we think/suspect this is the actual vehicle order that is made in OUR NAME? Or perhaps a good data source for PAG to pre order groups of similar cars?

Step #3 -- Go to dealer (or over mail/phone/internet) and complete vehicle order with some deposit ($100?, $250?, $500?, $1000?, 10%? -- unk at this point)

Do we think/suspect this is the actual vehicle order that is made in OUR NAME?

Step #4 -- Go to dealer, pay and take delivery (I doubt they intend to transport the car to our door step) ((I suppose it could be arranged...for a fee))

Some questions and assumptions:

We assume a 2000 per month delivery rate with fist arriving late Dec 07

50 or 70 dealers? I keep seeing conflicting Numbers here.

We assume each dealer will get 3 or 4 demo cars... so 50X3or 4 = 150~200 or 70X3or4 = 210~280 of the first boat load as "demo" cars

I think it safe to assume all the REAL insiders (PAG and IB employees and some of their friends and family) get cars out of the first boat load. So how many do we guess that would be? 50, 100, 200?

Do we have an idea how they are to be distributed ? I think everything is pure guess right now..

Anyone -- Please enlighten us if you have real info. Hell even a good edjumakated guess

My expectations and thoughts:

I expect that at least one car configured exactly like I paid a deposit for would be heading to my dealer with a VIN/Serial number designated for me.

I expect that my place in line for THAT car relates to my April 30th reservation date (1215).

I think what makes sense is a PAG/IB location at the port that group ships via rail and truck. I have heard rumor that PAG will have some central "Marshalling area" in Michigan. How they will sort and who gets cars first is unknown.

I highly doubt they just spit out the remainder of the first two thousand cars to each dealer and let the dealers sort out who to call... that method don't make much sense

I am real curious how any dealer (in a pre ordered car world) can say they will get XX number of cars per month the first year. That allocation/distribution scheme makes sense for the second and subsequent years after they have real sales information.

50~70 dealers... If 900 of the first (March 19~21) reservations are from Southern California then I EXPECT 900 cars to go to those regional dealers.

If only 3 cars from March 19~21 reservations are from Arkansas, I expect that regional dealer to get those 3 cars.... and no more

What would be the point of March 19th reservation and early Sept Confirmation IF you have to wait until June 08 for your regional dealer to get one in that configuration?

Could PAG have ordered the first 2000 based on the Sept "second tier" Confirmation configurations? ... Or was the first shipment a semi close "order" based on the original $99 reservation data?

I hope they were ordered from the confirmation process. Then all is probably good and I see the first 1200~1400* regular low level insiders getting their cars in January

*2000 Minus the demo and "real insider" overhead
 

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Just thought, no fact here.

The confirmations to date will go to the dealers as a delivery to the person that confirmed the order. Whether the person actually takes it is their decision. If they don't take it the car will be part of the dealer inventory. Hopefully they will work their way through the order dates to see if any of those people want to take that car in place of their future confirmation.

Future confirmation orders will determine factory orders but will require further deposit with the dealer. Dealer allocations will probably be based on current $99 reservations for their area.
 
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