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Maybe just my wishfull thinking, but I think these folks are making it up as they go and have no real plan of attack...

Once the two or three first "group sends" go out and they see what the response level and server impacts are, they probably will do larger and larger dumps....well one can only hope anyway... It would suck to have sent $99 on 30 April (6 weeks into the program) and have to wait over a year to be invited to confirm the intent to buy

Also with a rumored 25,000~30,000 aplicants that sent $99 and only 1000 or so memebers here, we have no good data to really know what is going on
 

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My Reservation Confirmation:
Mar 25, 2007
10:08 PM EDT
#....... 1179

Appears to be day 7, following the 1st Day March 19th open.

Any guesstimate range as to vehicle delivery date?

If 20,000 are made the first year,

that would be an average of maybe 1000 deliveries a month the first four months as production ramps up?

Then 2000 a month for the remaining 8 months?

And maybe 2000 reservations in the first two days, then 600 reservations each day, for the next 5 days, for a total of 5000 reservations done, and ahead of me, by the end of day seven?

So, my vehicle would come July 1st, or 5 months after initial deliveries of around February 1st, 2008?


Plus or minus a month, or, June 1st to Aug 1st, 2008?

So, each day waiting to put in the reservation, delayed delivery by about 21 days?

So, if I could get a woman pregnant this week, I would be expecting two deliveries about the same time, next year in 2008?

Laws of nature time required to be sufficiently prepared and ready for important deliveries? (buy diapers, crib, mush food, car wash, car wax, tire shine, etc.?)

Am I close?

I think I'll take a nap.

Or hybernate.
 

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My guess...... it ain't worth guessin'. I think there will be Smarts available even in January. I doubt that MB is building them for every specific reservation. They need to just get some out to dealers...period. If you're willing to buy one that isn't the color/config you want you may be able to get yours earlier. Bottom line we need to stop worrying about our reserve number until we hear from our local dealers, eh? OMHO and you know what they say about opinions. :)
 

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Here is some old information from the AP newswire dated 10 MAY 07, dateline Detroit:

“United Auto Group Inc., the nations second largest auto retailer, Wednesday said that in just over five weeks it has received $99 deposits from 12,600 people….”

Those here crunching numbers may find that useful in estimating how large was the number of people who dived in on 19 MAR and the times shortly following. I am sure that there was a very strong run on the first day, or as soon as the early-birds received their emailed newsletters. An overall average of 2100/week for the period.

Maybe also significant is the increase from 12,600 in early May to 30,000 in mid-September, say an average of about 970/week – likely a smoother rate.

A real SWAG indicates that my 25 JUN date puts me about 18,000th in line, maybe just under the wire for ‘08. If there is significant reservation attrition, maybe a better chance.
 

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Reservation number

Well, so far, I'm stumped. I need a few more people who received their reservation confirmations on March 19 to provide me with their confirmation number and whether they've been invited to place an "on-line order".
I received my confirmation # at 12:32 pm eastern time on 3/19/2007. My # is 9323901173. I did my reservation confirmation on 8/27/07 and received my email right away at 9:41 pm eastern time. I am an insider and reserved my car within 15 minutes of getting my email regarding the reservations being available. Let me know if this helps. I would love to know where I stand in line.
 

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iPhone of Cars?

The rep at the smart house in Venice said they have alone sign up about 1,000 new reservations in the first week of operation there. One newly registered customer reported four days later they were sent the config email. Looks like they have caught up with the emails. Now we need to see how fast they get cars through the system in 2008.

Again asked about "dealer mark-up." The rep said that Penske will not allow that. He said this will be the iPhone of cars in 2008 with the enthusiasm he has seen.
 

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Reserved May 24th. No confirmation yet!

Aaron Lephart
Most likely reservation confirmation versus email invitation to configure???? They are probably just getting their place in line by date and time of reservation??? The reservation does contain your original choices plus the number. I just configured Sat 10/26 with reservation date of 3/29 #1193.
 

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Break the Code

My confirm number is 4395211173

1173 = March 19, 2007
439521 = 12:59:34 PM (number is backwards)

The date stamp on my confirming email for the $99 deposit was Mar 19, 2007 12:59 PM

I got the request to configure on Sep 14, 2007 7:29 PM
and received the notification they got my configuration details on Sep 14, 2007 9:59 PM.

Yellow/black/leather. Requested Calif. DMV license plate "SMART IQ" on order.

Most likely dealer Mercedes of Beverly Hills. No word from them, yet. But I have received a couple of smart matchbox cars from the smart house in Venice. So I can go and visit the smarts every weekend!
 

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Info from Penske Video

I gleaned a couple of facts relating to the confirmation process from Roger Penske's presentation at the smart launch last weeK:
  • To date, 5000 reservation holders have completed the confirmation process.
  • The confirmation process is and will continue to be a direct link between the customer and the factory. In other words, unless you choose to take someone else's unwanted smart, you will get what you ordered.
 

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Code Cracked

spdickey (& co.) have the reservation code cracked.
the first 6 digits is the time stamp backwards, and I'm assuming the last four are the date as peviously discussed. All that lined up perfectly with my confirmation e-mail (11 am, March 19th). My configuration was done on Sept. 14th but I modified it on the 19th (you can do that by-the-way).
If anyone is curious, MB of San Diego is supposedly the national distibutor (and only a few miles from my house - yay!). They are finishing up a new showroom this month (Nov.) and will have some cars on display by December.

White/Silver/Tan ... immediately to become forest green metallic/silver/tan.
Did anyone see the "Grandstyle" limited edition sold in the UK/Canada? Looks sharp!

P.S. Harrass Smart about bringing the MHD (Micro Hybrid Drive) option on the european Fortwos to the US. If enough people ask for it, maybe they'll take it serious. Go to the International Smart website to read about it.
 
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