[paul c]

Of course you do! And I'm here to tell you. Well, not exactly, but pretty close.
The methodology:
I've reviewed every mention of the number of reservists which included a date. I've thrown out all those clearly wrong (775,000 from someone in Texas, for example), placed more weight from those more knowledgeable (PAG, certain posters who have inside information), placed less weight on those who included other known false information, and put the data in a spread sheet. Then I graphed the result. I cannot for the life of me figure out how to display the graph, so I'll present the data in chart form:
The chart:
Date......# of reservations
Mar 15.........0
Apr 1......5000
Apr 15.....8300
May1.....11700
May 15...15000
Jun 1.....16250
Jun 15....17500
Jul 1......18750
Jul 15....20000
Aug 1.....22000
Aug 15...26000
Sep 1.....30000
Sep 15...31250
Oct 1.....32500
The qualifications:
The first one is that it's not exactly right. The second is that it doesn't take into account the drop-outs.
The use:
Find out where your date falls in the chart, extrapolate a little, and you have a number. Not the exact number, of course, but I'd guess within a thousand or so.

 

[Lewis]

Great job- assuming that the cars arrive at a steady rate (we can only assume that now-don't know the boat docking dates and their capacities) we can guess at what time of the year we'll see our car based on 24,000 deliveries!

 

[Old smart]

Interesting. By my own hambone method I came up with 18870 for my 25 JUN date. Reasonably close.

 

[Lewis]

This is a great service Paul- thank you!

 

[2micro4u]

If 20,000 - 25000 are only being sold in 2008 according to 2008. Then that mean Since I reserved OCTOBER 5th I will not recieve mine until 1st qtr of 2009.
Im very very sad. It does not feel cool being at the very very end of the line.

 

[2micro4u]

Even with the drop outs I highly down there were that many to effect October reserviees to get theirs by the end of 2008.

Well I guess there will be alot who will not get appoved for the loan if their credit is not up to par so hopefully that will help the time arrive sooner as well. Inaddition there may be people who cant wait 8-12 months......Ahhhhhhh WU SAAAAAA

 

[Old smart]

...Well I guess there will be alot who will not get appoved for the loan if their credit is not up to par...

This may turn out to be germane, not so much about attrition, but how the smart Centers may make some profit - dealer financing with applicants desperate to get a smart.

 

[E SMART]

Not to lend to much to it but ...

Copied from the smart canada forum from a member out of Vancouver, WA:

The last four digits is a code for your day of reservation. 1173= March 19th. 1174= March 20th. Therefore 1232=May 17th (My reservation date.)

1172 = 03/18/07 1207 = 04/22/07 1242 = 05/27/07 1277 = 07/01/07
1173 = 03/19/07 1208 = 04/23/07 1243 = 05/28/07 1278 = 07/02/07
1174 = 03/20/07 1209 = 04/24/07 1244 = 05/29/07 1279 = 07/03/07
1175 = 03/21/07 1210 = 04/25/07 1245 = 05/30/07 1280 = 07/04/07
1176 = 03/22/07 1211 = 04/26/07 1246 = 05/31/07 1281 = 07/05/07
1177 = 03/23/07 1212 = 04/27/07 1247 = 06/01/07 1282 = 07/06/07
1178 = 03/24/07 1213 = 04/28/07 1248 = 06/02/07 1283 = 07/07/07
1179 = 03/25/07 1214 = 04/29/07 1249 = 06/03/07 1284 = 07/08/07
1180 = 03/26/07 1215 = 04/30/07 1250 = 06/04/07 1285 = 07/09/07
1181 = 03/27/07 1216 = 05/01/07 1251 = 06/05/07 1286 = 07/10/07
1182 = 03/28/07 1217 = 05/02/07 1252 = 06/06/07 1287 = 07/11/07
1183 = 03/29/07 1218 = 05/03/07 1253 = 06/07/07 1288 = 07/12/07
1184 = 03/30/07 1219 = 05/04/07 1254 = 06/08/07 1289 = 07/13/07
1185 = 03/31/07 1220 = 05/05/07 1255 = 06/09/07 1290 = 07/14/07
1186 = 04/01/07 1221 = 05/06/07 1256 = 06/10/07 1291 = 07/15/07
1187 = 04/02/07 1222 = 05/07/07 1257 = 06/11/07 1292 = 07/16/07
1188 = 04/03/07 1223 = 05/08/07 1258 = 06/12/07 1293 = 07/17/07
1189 = 04/04/07 1224 = 05/09/07 1259 = 06/13/07 1294 = 07/18/07
1190 = 04/05/07 1225 = 05/10/07 1260 = 06/14/07 1295 = 07/19/07
1191 = 04/06/07 1226 = 05/11/07 1261 = 06/15/07 1296 = 07/20/07
1192 = 04/07/07 1227 = 05/12/07 1262 = 06/16/07 1297 = 07/21/07
1193 = 04/08/07 1228 = 05/13/07 1263 = 06/17/07 1298 = 07/22/07
1194 = 04/09/07 1229 = 05/14/07 1264 = 06/18/07 1299 = 07/23/07
1195 = 04/10/07 1230 = 05/15/07 1265 = 06/19/07 1300 = 07/24/07
1196 = 04/11/07 1231 = 05/16/07 1266 = 06/20/07 1301 = 07/25/07
1197 = 04/12/07 1232 = 05/17/07 1267 = 06/21/07 1302 = 07/26/07
1198 = 04/13/07 1233 = 05/18/07 1268 = 06/22/07 1303 = 07/27/07
1199 = 04/14/07 1234 = 05/19/07 1269 = 06/23/07 1304 = 07/28/07
1200 = 04/15/07 1235 = 05/20/07 1270 = 06/24/07 1305 = 07/29/07
1201 = 04/16/07 1236 = 05/21/07 1271 = 06/25/07 1306 = 07/30/07
1202 = 04/17/07 1237 = 05/22/07 1272 = 06/26/07 1307 = 07/31/07
1203 = 04/18/07 1238 = 05/23/07 1273 = 06/27/07 1308 = 08/01/07
1204 = 04/19/07 1239 = 05/24/07 1274 = 06/28/07 1309 = 08/02/07
1205 = 04/20/07 1240 = 05/25/07 1275 = 06/29/07 1310 = 08/03/07
1206 = 04/21/07 1241 = 05/26/07 1276 = 06/30/07 1311 = 08/04/07

True test would be again, to match the resv date with when smart sends you the confirmation which I'm sure based on all of the interest someone will do as well ...

Link to thread:

http://www.clubsmartcar.ca/forums/viewtopic.php?t=11061&start=90

 

[gamernotwatcher]

So with the data above and a crystal ball, could you tell the distribution dates for this range?:
Mar 15.........0
Apr 1......5000

 

[sisyphus]

I hate to throw cold water on all this great and fun speculation, but that IS all it is at this time. It 's a really fun and cool guess, but no more than that. Until we begin getting calls from our dealers there is really no way of knowing for sure when our cars will arrive. The first 1000 seem to be a shoe-in for first quarter delivery, but no one can say with any certainty what cars will go where when. And that is a 90 day time spread! Don't rely on this speculation as fact as you may be disappointed, through no fault of smartUSA. Read it for the fun of it!
The Canadian forum has someone who can track deliveries of Canadian-bound deliveries by VIN, but he has not been able to track any US cars yet. Of course, those VINs would be of no use to us anyway, since we technically have no dealers that can give us any car-specific info or delivery dates yet. We wouldn't know where they're going!
Ah, yes! We're all going slowly nuts from the anticipation!

 

[roverallover]

logistics on delivery

Here's something I haven't seen discussed yet:
Somehow I don't belive that the cars will be delivered in the order sequence. It doesn't make sense really as the cars will most likely be delivered to dealers on a car-carrier truck ... I'd guess a dozen per truck. So say customers 2,4,6,8, etc. are all in City A ... it makes sense that they would get the cars at the same time as customers 1,3,5,7,9, etc are most likely in a number of other cities. It would just be too expensive to deliver each vehicle individually in sequence. So the question should really be: Which cities will get the first shipments? Then if you have an early reservation in that city, you should get one ... though this would take a fair bit of coordination and planning on behalf of the Smart folks as the rumor is that you'll get what you ordered. Maybe that's why the wait is so long before delivery .... just something to think about it (if I didn't confuse you!)

 

[spdickey]

Which cities will get the first shipments? Then if you have an early reservation in that city, you should get one ... though this would take a fair bit of coordination and planning on behalf of the Smart folks as the rumor is that you'll get what you ordered .....just something to think about it (if I didn't confuse you!)

We also have to factor in the port the car is being sent to. Is smart using both east and west coast WWL ports? In Canada everything was coming through Halifax. What is the distance between the port and the dealer. How long does the truck driver take for lunch breaks? Is he allowed to take rest stops while delivering the smarts? What happens if your car is dinged on the boat coming over? What if he drops off your smart at the wrong place? Where do orphaned cars go? To someone who greased a dealer or the next person in line who wanted just that car color and options?

All of these logistics questions are worked out by some of the largest shipping companies in the world. If/when you get your VIN you can track the movements of your car from port to port, see my sticky in the Discussion Forum to see how to do it.

 

[Lewis]

Don't forget to factor in the weather forecast. If the delivery truck hits snow that will slow it from an average speed of 44.7 mph to 32.876 mph, thereby increasing your delivery time by 21.65 minutes per 120.5 miles of delivery distance.

)))))

???????? I think I need a glass of water!

p.s. Don't forget to factor in your color. I understand white takes 3 minutes more to clean in the prep area than blue!

Oh wait- that's for a normal size car- on the Smart it will be 2.145 minutes...............I think I need an aspirin too with that water!

 

[sisyphus]

Ow! Lewis! Stop that! It hurts! Oh, my poor brain!

 

[Procrustes]

Well - we all know approximately where we are in the queue due to our initial reservation date. For those of us who have already done their final configuration does anyone want to see if it's possible to decipher the actual order number (or even VIN number) from your configuration link?

After making the "final configuration" I was emailed a link where I could view my selection...
The link starts with... "ww w. smart. com/is-bin/"
and ends with..."config-EN-CXXXE60B-6F3B-4XXX-A7XX-24E98CC9XXXX"

Note that I X'ed out a lot of numbers (but no letters) to obscure my actual details.

Since my original reservation was March31 (assumedly close to the 5000 mark) I'm wondering if the 4XXX number is my spot in the queue?

 

[gobbo]

Well I used a free graph tool online and created this, if it helps for visualizing.
The next post will have a link to it...

 

[gobbo]

Let me know if this doesn't work for you, I did save an image version if that helps. Just either go to preview or save the print/save to get a downloadable version.
http://nces.ed.gov/nceskids/createagraph/default.aspx?ID=12224b4cded24113ba9362c561a4861c

 

[BeSmart]

Since my original reservation was March31 (assumedly close to the 5000 mark) I'm wondering if the 4XXX number is my spot in the queue?

I reserved 29 March. My number is 4XXX as well. Could be.

 

[spdickey]

I reserved 29 March. My number is 4XXX as well. Could be.

My reservation number is 4395211173 dated 03/19/2007

My confirmation URL is:

http://www.smart.com/is-bin/INTERSH...onfig-EN-A0441BCB-EF2B-42E6-A30A-79E8A5667E6B

Go ahead and click it, it just shows my real poor taste in colors to some (yellow/black/leather). Yea I know it looks like a Jerry Sienfield movie. Bee real! If any can make something of the hash code, let us know. But I think its just a random hash since my code at that position is 42E6 and I reserved on day one.

Oh well, back to some more conspiracy theories on why the PT Cruiser-Miata-Fiero-Prius cost so much when they first came out, and why we are paying MSRP for our smarts.

 

[smart1]

The characters in the confirmation link all appear to be hexadecimal numbers (base 16) where A=10, B=11,...F=15. I suspect how this works is that the link goes to a web site, and all these numbers basically spell out which options one has selected. That way, the web site stays basically the same for all confirmations, and the site just decodes the hash codes to display your configuration. I haven't tried to decode it yet because I doubt it is very useful since I already know what configuration I ordered!